A statistical model of the Ted Fenwick Trophy — two-man, net high-low match play — fit on Rivermead-only Golf Canada round data. Interactive bracket, player adjustments, and live simulation.
Each team is placed at a random bracket slot, then 18-hole net match play is simulated through four rounds. Tournament win probability averages over many such drawings — useful when the bracket isn't known yet.
| # | Team | Win % | Final % | Avg Round | Hcap Gap |
|---|
Each row is a qualifying team. Mean Diff is average Rivermead score over course rating. Best 8 is the average of their eight best differentials — handicap-style. Hcap Gap = mean differential minus stated index; positive means they play worse than their handicap (advantage to opponent who gets fewer effective strokes). Smaller team gap = stronger relative to the field.
| Team | Idx 1 | Idx 2 | Mean 1 | Mean 2 | Best 8 (T) | Gap (T) | Rounds |
|---|
Click any bracket slot to assign a team. Once all 16 slots are filled, advance probabilities propagate automatically through the rounds.
Add or remove strokes from a player's expected Rivermead score. Useful for "what if X is in form" or "Y is sandbagging." Positive values = play worse; negative = play better. Changes apply when you re-run the simulation.
Translate model win-probabilities into dollars. Payout structure per the email: 5% / 10% / 20% / 40% of pot for losing in QF / SF / Final, and winning the Final. Enter your expected pot size and the auction price for each team to see expected payout, net EV, ROI, and break-even price.
| # | Team | Win % | Reach SF % | Reach QF % | Exp. Payout | Your Bid | Net EV | ROI % | Break-Even |
|---|
Set a per-team budget. The table below ranks teams by expected ROI assuming you can buy each at the budget price. The "top" cards highlight the best value bets — these are typically not the headline favorites.
This model uses Rivermead-only Golf Canada differentials (score differential = (score − course rating) × 113 / slope) for each player. We assume their scoring distribution at Rivermead is approximately normal with the observed mean and standard deviation from these rounds, decomposed into a per-round shock plus per-hole noise.
For each match, we generate 18 gross hole scores per player by sampling around the player's mean differential, then convert to net scores by allocating their course handicap strokes across holes (stylized stroke index). The team's net on each hole is the lower (best) of the two partners' net scores. Holes won → match outcome.
For each random bracket assignment, we simulate a 4-round single-elimination tournament where each match advances the winner based on the head-to-head probability matrix. We repeat for many bracket draws to get an unconditional tournament-win probability.
A key empirical finding: each team's average Rivermead differential exceeds their stated index by 1.2 to 3.3 strokes. The team with the smallest gap (Mattson/Lefebvre, +1.23) gets the highest model win %. This is intuitive — players whose handicap fairly reflects Rivermead play don't give the field an artificial cushion.
• Exact Rivermead stroke index allocation is approximated.
• Defending champs (Tsang/Saikaley) round data wasn't loaded — their stats are synthesized from indexes.
• Match-play psychology, recent form not on Golf Canada, weather, and injuries are not modeled.
• Even the model favorite wins only ~12% of the time. Match play is high variance.
Choose a team from the unfilled list, or click an already-assigned team to move it here.